By: Omar Eltoukhy
First of all, I would like to thank everyone who took the time to post a “thank you” or “Merry Christmas” to the site and via email. That is more appreciated than you can know. It is not often we take time off from the hectic and thrilling (sometimes in a good way, and sometimes not!) business of trading. But during this time of year, it is wonderful to interact with members on a purely personal level, leaving the charts behind, and bringing the good cheer that goes with the season forward. This humble author and mentor here appreciates the fact that we are much more than a group of traders, but rather a family of sorts, and that really shines through during the holiday season.
I hope everyone had an enjoyable week, and hopefully spent with loved ones, eating too much, reveling and all forms of enjoyment that suits each of you individually and as families.
As Marc grants me every year, the post after Christmas gets to be a little bit of a reflection and a discussion of moving forward. To be honest, it seems that I was only writing the same sort of post yesterday, but here we are a year later.
Looking back on 2015, it certainly wasn’t a year to forget. Were your predictions you made in 2014 correct? Some of them? All of them? If the latter is true, you can have an extremely bright future in trading if not already a billionaire today. From my point of view, one thing keeps coming to mind……..I predicted that the global stock markets would have a big crash in 2015. Did that happen? Nope! In fact, the “easy money” central banks kept the juice flowing and markets although we can’t call it a “banner year” for moves up, we certainly aren’t looking at anything that resembles 2008, and some major stock indices seem to be on track to finish the year with some gains. So, I was wrong on that prediction. A great many retirement accounts are glad I was.
The forex markets saw quite an interesting year as well. The Aussie came down from its mighty height, to revisit levels I didn’t think we would see for quite some time. I have been an Aud bull all the way, but China’s economy was simply too strong an influence for our beloved currency from “down under” to stay flying high. The USD saw some great gains although that might come as a complete surprise to Donald Trump even though he talks a lot about currency manipulation (what he doesn’t seem to express very well in his speeches is that the manipulation actually makes the dollar stronger!). Bad for US exports, but good for domestic household wealth. The Yen after coming from a record dive in 2014 in a way that could be manufactured by a very savvy Abe could have hoped for saw a stabilization after a push lower in the beginning of the year. And then there was the Euro……. So much discussion, so much QE, with ups and downs, but interestingly enough when you look across 2015 this currency has really ended almost where it started the year. In more dramatic fashion the same is true for the Pound. I will give the Sterling my vote for “currency of the year” as it seemed to be the most profitable and fun to trade in 2015 with the big swings.
Of course, no discussion about 2015 in the markets could be complete without talking about OIL!! WOW! Considering how many lives this single instrument touches, it has had a dramatic change this year. For once, a win for the “little guy”, as lower energy prices affect the individual family unit in such a big way. After years of seeing everything from food, to transportation of goods, to the cost at the pump suck money out of the household income due to expensive oil, 2015 saw a nice change to that story. As I write this, even though I live in generally a higher gas price state, the price at the pump hovers just above $2.00 a gallon. Keep in mind that this has been with the backdrop of a VERY unstable Middle East. Oh how the global energy market has changed. This is one trend I hope continues, but is largely dependent on China’s economy. If they get back into gear again, we will see this rise.
So, 2015 has been an interesting market year for sure. The best part about it though has certainly been that we have all participated in the changes, monitored them, discussed them, and prognosticated them. Even with the humble $200 trading account, in some small way, has an impact on the global markets. Yes, no matter how small your trading account is, YOU have been part of that global change. One of the few businesses left where we can all take part in something so large, even at such a small scale on a daily basis. I have surely loved discussing forex with all of you this year, and watching growth happen, not just in monetary terms, but in learning and exploration of a “game” I have participated in for so many years.
As you all look back on what a year it has been, I hope that you take a moment to appreciate your own impact, growth and understanding of how the financial markets affect all of our lives, and how we get a chance to take direct action in them. I very much look forward to the year ahead, and in my next post, I will discuss the some steps you can take to ensure that you have the best chance of making 2016 the best trading year ever!!
Happy Holidays my beloved group of traders!!! May the best be ahead, the worst behind, the moment at hand enjoyed!!! It is an honor to be in your lives, and share these moments with you.
Omar Eltoukhy, goldtrademaster.com
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