In the previous article Weekly Analysis & US Debt Crisis Omar & I explained how we prepare our forex trading plan for the week ahead on a Sunday. Then, wherever possible, place forward orders and walk away -once we have made sure that there are no profitable gaps to trade at the market open – to see the gap trading strategy in action CLICK HERE

This then is Omars written and video explanation of what he was looking for and more importantly, WHY. Novice traders need to learn how to trade for themselves, not blindly following gur’s and experts. Our best students do their own research before they check out ours. Sometimes they will find a set up that we have missed THAT’S when we know they are starting to “Get” forex.

Omar was originally one of my students who became so successful that he now trades for and mentors others. Pay particular attention to his Aud/$ analysis below, that gained me 50 pips profit!

Forex Weekly Analysis for Week Beginning October 6th, 2013

So just when we were finally seeing some Fall markets and much better daily ranges, the US sees a government shutdown and puts a wet blanket on the party.

We have watched the markets degrade across many pairs to the point of nervous confusion.

I feel much of the energy has been sucked out of the market and we can see the bollinger bands on many pairs start to constrict, agreeing with that feeling.  Although I don’t believe the current US situation will create much volatility and scary spikes, we could be in for a little while of boring trading.  Prices on many pairs has pulled into “sticky” places and I am taking a “wait and see” approach to trading this week.

I suggest letting the market lead the way, and dancing along after it.  We are close to interesting points on a few pairs, but I would feel more confident if the market made its move first, to confirm what I’m thinking rather than me trying to guess which way things will go.  Check the shortened video (I hear ya!!  I’m long-winded I know…..) for as condensed details as your humble narrator could pull off.

Euro/$: Last week’s weekly candle closed as a bearish engulfing.  Gives me pause for longs to say the least, but longs are still my preference.  I would wait until pullbacks to 1.3400 and especially 1.3300 to get interested. Check video for much more detail.

Gbp/$: Continued the ascension at the beginning of the week, but ended the week with a hard thud, to create a foreboding bearish-engulfing weekly candle.  We finished the week right above the important S/R of 1.6000 but I am NOT taking a long from here.  My best two options are a breakout above 1.6070 with a pullback to 1.6050 for a long (my 1st choice since it would show the Gbp/Usd back on the march upward), OR a pullback to 1.5950 area which is both the 200-EMA from the weekly and a trendline.  A break below this area will have me thinking short.

Aud/$:  FINALLY cleared above .9400 to finish a week.  The first time since early Summer.  Although Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd look bearish at moment, the Aud/Usd has been moving to its own music lately and I still favor a long from .9400.  If price falls further first, I would also take a long at .9300.  We have pretty clear waters above all the way to a little before .9600 so the R/R on this trade seems great as long as the Aussie obliges and continues its march upward.

Euro/Gbp: This pair continues to be a tricky one to call.  One of the pairs I see as “stuck” at the moment.  This area is between the multiple EMAs at around .8470 area and the 200-EMA from the weekly at around .8335.  Price may just bounce between these areas giving opportunities for range trades, but with this weekly candle closing as a bullish engulfing, it may just breakthrough the 8470 area it has come to stop just below to end the week. Either way, be careful trading this pair.  I would feel much more comfortable if we saw a break below 8300, followed by a pullback for a short, OR  long if .8470 is broken to the upside for the opposite M2 trade. I discuss all the options in the video.

$/Yen: Pair has continued to swoon but may have bottomed at 97.00.  Seems to potentially be reversing back up on daily but held short of 97.50 to end the week.  Weekly candle became a doji, and bollingers are shrinking.  A break above 97.50 for an M2 long would suit me, OR a break below 97.00 for the opposite M2 short. Check video for details.

Euro/Yen: Bollinger bands seem to be choking the life out of this pair at the moment and looks EXTREMELY difficult to trade.  132.50 has held the pair down to finish each day but not without some crazy volatility intraday.  AVOID trading this pair, BUT there might be a chance to get a trade above 133.00 of this area and trendline are broken to the upside. Check the video for more info.

Aud Yen: Seems to be “stuck” between 93.00 and 90.00 again.  Could be range trades with short at 93.00 and long at 90.00 BUT, I would much prefer the long trade after a breakout of 93.60, OR a short trade after a breakout below 90.00.  Like the other Yens, this pair seems to have the bollinger bands coming into squeeze price.   Check video out for more details.

Cad: Can you say doji??  The last 3 days of trading did.  Seems to be in a state of confusion, something very comfortable for this pair.  I would like to think about a long if we see a break above 1.0400 and the daring among you may be interested in the double-convergence of 200-EMAs at around 1.0280 for some longs.  A break below 1.0200 would have me intrigued for a potential short from a pullback to this area.

New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum

Hope you enjoy the analysis!! See you Wednesday for an update!! Best wishes and happy trading to all!!!

Don’t forget there are lots of other examples of forex analysis here on this site, all of which will help you learn how to plan the trade and then trade that plan as explained here:

How to Plan A Forex Trade & Then Trade The Plan

Once you have watched the video click on the following link to see how these trades panned out in Omars Wednesday update. I personally made over 100 pips, were you in at $10 a pip thats $1000 profit from analysis and planning on a Sunday: Here is Omars Update: CLICK HERE

Weekly Outlook Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-xH7jdrb3g&feature=share&list=UUh9jKEbExtwL0MnwLBeyoyQ