This is an example of the detailed forex analysis and my intended trades for the week ahead from my www.forexmentorpro.com forex training website. Some of the strategies in the video may seem complicated but are all explained in full video courses, written content, email & forum support:
Hi, in recent weeks our popular guest presenter, Fotis, has been explaining how important it is to understand the fundamentals of the financial world. How everything, currencies, bonds, etf’s. stocks et al are inter related and how we can use that knowledge to become more successful traders.
I used to trade simply from charts with just a passing interest in what was going on in the world and it seemed to work 🙂 However since the start of the financial melt down and especially in the last 18 months, I have paid far more attention when planning trades. I am still a technical trader, BUT with a greater knowledge of what is most likely to influence my trading decisions.
Last week on a simplistic level we all explained that the markets were waiting for FOMC. We saw ranging on many pairs until the news. Then the release and statement and, bang, price rocketed on all $US pairs. This was predictable and by following even basic fundamentals you will have avoided what could have been a major loss.
Having said all that my “feeling” that the Euro was going to fall back down was based on a mixture of fundamentals and 1000’s of hours spent in front of trading monitors. This confused some of you but technically we had a big clue on the Euro/$ weekly chart that price was at least likely to stall as explained in Wednesdays update.
The plan last week then was to try and make profitable trades prior to the FOMC news. Cancel any forward orders 2 hours before (at the London close) and then wait for the announcement and its impact. You saw the reaction which was huge and yet I show in the video that some of the major areas were still valid and there was a golden chance to short the Euro/$ on the daily or 4 hour at a pullback. I was in bed and missed it and to be honest would have been wary of taking the trade, but it worked for 200 pips.
Last week I suggested that if price broke and closed below 1.3300 that would be the place for a pull back entry to short. Prior to FOMC the Gbp/$ long and Euro/Yen short both worked from Sundays analysis (explained on Wednesday) as well.
The Forex Week Ahead
Big moves after FOMC and lots of technical clues, including candlesticks that suggest further $USA strength. Will there be pull backs before moving on (hopefully) or will price simply keep racing onwards?
So far this year I have managed to find winning trades almost every week from Sundays analysis. This week is a little trickier, as after big moves there is often a pull back but I show in todays video a very simple strategy that you can use on 4 hour charts that has few indicators, but give great risk/reward trades, for example on the Gbp/$ there are opportunities for 1: 5 risk reward ratio trades just as there were lots of opportunities to make 1:8, 1:9 and even 1:10 trades throughout June.
Risk reward is key to succeeding at forex. You do not need many winning trades at those ratios to be profitable.
Gbp/$: 1.5550/80 is the main area for a potential short for me. I show in the video how I will follow this down on a 4 hour chart as the week progresses.
Another option on 4 hour charts is a break below 1.5400 followed by a pullback and or a break below the lower channel trend line- all explained in detail in the video.
Euro/$: Already did a big move and I don’t like it in its current position as there is too much in the way. The ideal entry for me is a pull back all the way to 1.3290, it’s a decent risk reward. Intraday its trickier than the Gbp but look on 4 hour charts for a short at 1.3200, if it simply keeps falling I will leave for now.
The weekly Head and shoulders is still in play as well.
Euro/Gbp: Hopefully I kept you out of a loser last week. I am interested only to short. Either all the way back up to 0.8590 or a break and fall below the weekly trend line.
More aggressive entry is a break and close just of the trend line, followed by a pull back to 0.8500 or the more conservative short after a break and close below 0.8470 followed by a pull back.
Chf: Longer term I am interested to short at 0.9600
Intraday 0.9360 is key for me. Not one to place a forward order. I show in the video how to look at price action/candle sticks for clues to either long or short here.
Aud: Fell off a cliff, last week I changed my strategy slightly and missed a 400 pip move 🙁
I will place a forward order to short at 0.9580.
Intraday I will look at 4 hour charts for clues to short at 0.9400
Aud/Yen: If we see a BIG drop then I will place a forward order to long at 85.00 but will be an extra big move so doubt it will happen this week.
Intraday 90.00/current position is key. This has been major support and resistance going back many years. It’s a whole number and 61.8% fib is near and weekly trend line going back to April 2012 -anyone mention multiple reasons 🙂 I will watch this at the market open and 4 hour charts for clues to long either in its current position or if it drops at the open then the trend line around 88.50 would be great if it gaps.
Final option this pair is if price clearly breaks and closes below 90.00 then I will look for an M2 short. The more conservative entry for a short is to wait for the daily candle to close. That way you avoid being whip sawed either direction.
Euro/Yen: I prefer the Aud/Yen this week. Some nasty 100+6 pip spikes last week make this less attractive. Intraday 128.00 is key either long or short. Daily charts more conservative, smallest chart I will look at is 4 hour and only trade from closed candles.
$/Yen: 98.60 still key, but as with all yens at the moment could go either way, again watch longer time frames for clues. As ever only be in one Yen trade at a time until you have your stop to entry.
Cad: I am interested to long this pair. I explain in the video how I will split my trade in half (scale in) to this one. I will place half the order to long at 1.0400 and the second part at 1.0350 all explained in the video. This could be the start of a major move upwards, I expect price to struggle to clear 1.0500 but I will hold this for the long term. Its not so many years ago that I was trading this when price was around 1.300!
New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum
To View the Video full screen, click on the square shape, bottom right hand corner.
Author: Marc Walton