By: Omar Eltoukhy Hi Traders!!
Well, I’m back again this week to share with you the written portion of the twice daily analysis offered at goldtrademaster.com. This analysis is for the NY markets for today, July 30th. Keep in mind some of the terminology has to do with the system our team uses in the program. That said, I have tried to point out the actual areas since I know many of you reading this will not have the actual tools. Also keep in mind that this is a VERY tough week to trade ANY market, so please use caution. And AS ALWAYS, this information is for educational purposes only. It is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell or trade any instrument or financial vehicle.
After a VERY, VERY slow week, it seems that today might be the day to make all the slow go away!! I am very keen on trading today, just as I made a weeks worth of profits last week simply from my trades on Thursday (after all, I got nothing else earlier in the week!!!). Wait until after US GDP is released and watch the instruments for moves that could lead us to a happy weekend!!! Here is my analysis for today:
OUTLOOK BY INSTRUMENT:
GOLD: Has moved through our bottom area of 1091.80 to break the range. However, price currently has come to a grinding halt at 1086 (NO SURPRISE!!). Since 1086 is such an important level, if you were unable to catch the move higher, then I would suggest holding on until we see how gold reacts to this area. We are getting conflicting reports with indices to confirm. That said, silver has re-taken the key 14.75 area and that very much backs up our gold short idea. I will be awaiting a breakout of 1086 after the GDP news. Conservative approach is a secondary move after pullback, although a medium to small (although not too small) breakout of this very, very important level could be good enough for a trade. I will be watching the indices to see if there is broad buying to support this selloff.
SILVER: Has taken out 14.75 and the trendline. Obvious idea is to wait for a pullback towards this level and hope to see a rejection from the attempt. This would confirm the gold move further and possibly provide a silver trade as well.
OIL: Has moved nicely above the bullish dynafib, BUT the big area of 50.00 looms large above. Personally, I will be looking for a PFT rejection of this level, OR a breakout/pullback/rejection to go long above it. I will not trade long in between. The alternative is a breakout back down below the bearish dynafib at approx. 48.50 for a reversal and short position if we get a good signal.
INDICES: A bit conflicting which is why I didn’t long the FTSE signal. The DAX is still being capped by the bearish dynafib and I need to see a rally above both dynafibs before considering a long on the DAX. Hopefully, we reject lower and close back below 11250 for a short signal. This is of course dependent on the other index markets turning lower and getting back into bearish territory. The DOW is a great overall indicator today since it remains in between 2 key levels of s/r. For a short trade, we need a breakout below 17656 and for the long we need a breakout above 17813. I know that is quite a big range in between, but it is better to get the confirmation than take a shot just based on momentum.