By: Omar Eltoukhy
Hi There Trade Fans!!
Well, it has been a shortened, holiday week and that always means being on your guard and not jumping into trades! Since this holiday happened to be Labor Day and the “official” end of Summer trading session to most traders, it is the changing of the guard. We have seen some tricky markets this week, but if you have been patient, there have also been some opportunities like a great gold trade yesterday. Today, I think there are plenty of potential trades lining up if we get a nice, mobile NY session. Look for gold to lead the charge no matter what you trade, as movement there should probably indicate a broader market move across multiple instruments. Index markets have been volatile up to this point, but mainly because of the Gbp news. Whatever you do, employ patience and sound judgement to take any trades and realize that we still have a whole lot of the month left to trade, so it’s best to look for quality over quantity. I have also include the London Outlook video below so you can get an idea of what the members of goldtrademaster.com get on a daily basis as well as a peek a the wonderful system we use in our trading program. Enjoy the analysis!!!
Keep in mind some of the terminology has to do with the system our team uses in the program. That said, I have tried to point out the actual areas since I know many of you reading this will not have the actual tools. Also keep in mind that this is a VERY tough week to trade ANY market, so please use caution. And AS ALWAYS, this information is for educational purposes only. It is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell or trade any instrument or financial vehicle.
Contact me directly with any questions about the wonderful program we have at: Omar@goldtrademaster.com
OUTLOOK BY INSTRUMENT:
GOLD: Has kept in a very tight range today so far. This could be very good for us because a breakout will be clear. The outlook hasn’t changed since earlier today. Look for pressure moves into 1109.38 followed by a close under 1105 to get a signal, PFT or standard. Alternatively we could pull back to the 1113.23 area and then get a close back under 1109.38 for a signal. On the riskier side, if we get a sharp breakout under 1105, we could trade that without the upwards pressure first. Of course, to add some safety to that trade, we would seek a secondary move after pullback to re-test 1105 and then trade the subsequent rejection. Finally, there is the possibility that we pull back all the way to the dynafibs way up at 1118 and then reject lower, but I don’t particularly like that trade. I am not looking for long trades in gold today, BUT we should at least look for a secondary move above 1113.23 to consider that move.
SILVER: Has pulled back to 14.75 and we will have to see if it rejects this level. If it does, there could be a short setup. If not, there is a potential long setup from the breakout/pullback/rejection higher from this area.
OIL: Has so far gone right on schedule. Spent the earlier part of the session pulling nicely into the Bullish Dynafib and above the near-term SCZ. Now we are seeing it fall below both those levels and is currently showing a nice rejection from this area. We could have a nice standard signal if price closes below 44.90 and that’s what I’m looking for to get short. That said, a close below 45.00 outright from at least 44.95 and lower could offer an opportunity, although the lower it closes the better in my opinion. I DO NOT want to risk a trade based on a weak rejection from s/r. I am not considering a long trade today, but there might be a chance to trade the rally (if we get one) on a secondary move above the bullish dynafib at 45.85 with final confirmation coming above 46.88 which can also be used for a target or stop adjustment area if the long trade were to fire just above 45.85. Let’s hope for the short setup!!
INDICES: Tough area today, but I have personally avoided these so far because of the Gbp news items as discussed. However, things are looking very attractive here if we can get a bigger definitive move on a variety of index markets. On the FTSE, a breakout below 6138.8 could lead us into a short trade, although the secondary move from this break with a close under 6093.8 would be the most confirmed and conservative short trade available. On the long side, we simply need a PFT long setup back up that closes above 6178.1 if we get that next hour. Another long option would be to wait for a full standard signal. The DAX is almost identical to the FTSE but simply replace 6138.8 with 10200 and 6178.1 with 10265. The DOW looks bearish at the moment, and a close under 16250 could fire a short signal, although I still feel that’s aggressive. A secondary move from this breakout would be better in my opinion. A big rally after finding support and a close above 16385 would be “good to go” for a long if we sharply reject this lower area although a secondary move above this area would be more conservative. One thing I am DEFINITELY looking for to trade the index markets today is some broad confirmation in gold by seeing some movement there. It might be best to wait for the US cash markets to open before taking any index trades today. Use caution, although I think we will get some action in this department today. Patience is advised, and has proven to be very profitable this week!
LONDON OUTLOOK VIDEO:
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