By Omar Eltoukhy
Hey there Traders!!
IT’s that time again! Below is my analysis for the upcoming session. It has been another interesting week for sure. FOMC getting released early (leaked actually), as well as some bigger moves and a phenomenal trade in oil yesterday. For August, it certainly has been an active month!! As I repeat constantly, growing the account is almost easier with less trades. Too often people thing professional trading involves tons of trades taken every day. The most successful traders I have ever met and the best growth I get comes from being patient and “getting paid to wait”. Quality over quantity always. Today, we are facing some instruments that might be a bit exhausted, but there are still opportunities, and after all, anything can happen, so best to prepare for as many possibilities as possible!!! Enjoy!
Keep in mind some of the terminology has to do with the system our team uses in the program. That said, I have tried to point out the actual areas since I know many of you reading this will not have the actual tools. Also keep in mind that this is a VERY tough week to trade ANY market, so please use caution. And AS ALWAYS, this information is for educational purposes only. It is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell or trade any instrument or financial vehicle.
News for the NY session essentially comes down to the housing numbers and the Philly manufacturing index. These might be important catalysts for moves today. Hopefully we will get nice setups after they are released.
OUTLOOK BY INSTRUMENT:
GOLD: Since we had a nice run up yesterday, again the best advice I can give is to wait for a pullback, and then move higher before trading. One important s/r area we should look to pullback into is 1138.50 which we have already re-tested today. A move higher from here, particularly one that clears the previous high could lead to a good signal. Williams is still firmly in the buy zone. That said, we have not had any sort of refresh on the MM system, and I personally won’t be trading gold unless we do. This would essentially equate to a pullback to our next major area of 1131.50 or even the “final” area of 1125. If we cross under 1125, I will be looking to short, although aggressive traders can certainly consider a short under 1131.50 from a secondary move after re-test. Our ultimate goal for target if we get another big move up today would be 1146.50 or 1150. That said, I have my doubts about today giving us that move, which is why I feel the indices are the best place to look.
SILVER: We are bouncing from 15.38 currently which is great, and we have two trendlines between this area and 15.50 which is our next major area. The trendlines should be found on the most recent download available for silver in the “download today’s manual chart” section of the member’s area. I think we can consider a long trade if we breach the trendlines from a bounce from 15.38 and look for more confirmation at 15.50 (or a profit target), followed by a potential breakout/pullback/rejection from this area if we are indeed to see another bigger move in metals today.
OIL: As suspected, our amazing trade from yesterday has left the market “tired”. Without a significant pullback, I am not really considering oil today. Although both crude and Brent are very bearish and the goal has been to find any good reason to short, our best trades have come after a day of pullback like we saw on Tuesday which led to the great entry yesterday. Without this function, I feel that our profit potential is limited and our stop loss would either have to be big, or dangerous and offer little protection. Our target area for pullback is 42.30-42.75 which encompasses both dynafibs and a couple of SCZ areas. IF we were to pullback there and reject lower, then I would take the trade. Be careful with the mid-term fib of 40.63, because if we breakout below this area, even with a pullback and rejection, I feel there isn’t much room to run. That said, it is a trade possibility and at least offers us a decent area of protection (the mid-term fib) if it happens.
INDICES: Ahh yes. This seems to be the most appealing area for trading today. Although the FTSE seems to be a bit too extended, the DAX is reacting nicely to 10625. We have broken below this area already today, and we have attempted a re-test, and it seems we are now pulling away from it. BUT, we have not actually hit 10625 yet today, and I would ideally like to see pressure into this area, followed by a selloff that closes below the other hourly candles today. IF these two things happen, I will definitely be looking to short. If you caught the DOW trade mentioned today in the London outlook, from the early PFT, then you would have hit your profit target and banked +130 pips in the last few hours. I didn’t take it because the entry was pre-London, and going forward on the DOW we would either have to get a pullback to 17344 for another rejection or we have to look to 17188 for a breakout and secondary move lower from this area for a trade. 17188 in my opinion is the “line in the sand” to confirm the start of a downtrend in the DOW. The SP500 has already broken its second mid-term fib level today, and seems very bearish. The NASDAQ seems to be the best option for the US indices going forward today, since we only need a pullback to 4492.2 and a rejection lower (with a signal) to short this. It is my prime target for a trade in the US indices, although the DAX is my favorite overall pick. Any major rally today in the stock markets will have me leaving them alone, with the exception of the DAX which if it retakes 10625 to the upside, and then makes a PFT long setup from this area, I will take a reduced stake counter-trend long while targeting the dynafib as my target with a tight leash as a trailing stop.
Contact me directly with any questions about the wonderful program we have at: Omar@goldtrademaster.com