By: Omar Eltoukhy Hi Traders!!
Well, I’m back again this week to share with you the written portion of the twice daily analysis offered at goldtrademaster.com. This analysis is for the NY markets for today, July 23rd. Keep in mind some of the terminology has to do with the system our team uses in the program. That said, I have tried to point out the actual areas since I know many of you reading this will not have the actual tools. Also keep in mind that this is a VERY tough week to trade ANY market, so please use caution. And AS ALWAYS, this information is for educational purposes only. It is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell or trade any instrument or financial vehicle.
I am going to start doing these shared posts here every week. So look for the weekly outlook on Wednesday and the pre-NY outlook on Thursday before NY open. If you’d like to get the information sooner and see it twice a day 3 times a week including the weekly outlook that comes out before the market opens, you can be considered to join the Triple Threat trading team by signing up on the website or contacting me directly at Omar@goldtrademaster.com with any questions you might have about what our amazing trading group has on the inside!! Wish you all the best in your own trading and enjoy the analysis!!!
NEW YORK OUTLOOK FOR MULTI-MARKETS JULY 23, 2015
OUTLOOK BY INSTRUMENT:
This, OF COURSE is NOT what we wanted to happen!
Figures and plays right into how gold has been this week.
Thankfully, there is no way anyone should have grabbed the trade, and instead, it puts us closer to a pullback and rejection area we might fancy!
As we draw closer to 1110 where the bearish dynafib is, we should expect a possible rejection and possible PFT setup from there. Keep an eye on 1095.23 and 1093.75 for confirmation to continue any further moves down. Alternatively and RISKY is the possible long trade setup from the breakout above 1113.23 which would put us above the bullish dynafib with just a little push higher. We would be targeting 1125 if that happens and ONLY on a secondary move after the break. The targets to the downside will be 1087-1086 as that is the big fib we talked about earlier in the day. In any case we need MOVEMENT to make anything happen!
SILVER: Still primarily focused on silver as a way to confirm a gold trade. It also rallied alongside gold today but failed to make the distance to 15.00 which is our desired breakout area for a possible secondary long. That said, it DID pop out of the recent range high and at least is making some sort of movement. I wouldn’t take the gold long unless/until we get a breakout of 15.00. On the other side, I am carefully watching both 14.8438 and 14.65ish as the latter number would confirm a gold breakout and the former number would resume the silver market back into bearish territory.
OIL: Has gone very sideways today. This market is extremely straightforward to me today. Step 1: Retest 50.00 Step 2: Reject that area with a PFT setup or a standard signal on a smaller timeframe possibly. Step 3: Trade oil short after confirming on Brent. Step 4: Target next mid-term fib at 48.44 for the actual target of 48.50. Alternatively we might simply see oil drop, and for those willing to take a bit more risk, there is a smaller hourly trendline that could be used for confirmation as well as taking the trade from the 15-min or 5-min charts with a solid signal.
INDICES: As I have mentioned I have shorted both the FTSE and the DAX today. The FTSE produced a much better signal for the short. If you are not already in the trade, then look for either new reasons to get in on the smaller timeframes OR wait for a possible pullback to the mid-term fib again (6718) which is doubful, OR look for a re-test and rejection of 6700. The DAX was the lower quality signal and the reason I say that is even though we got good rejection structure, we failed to take out the bottom of the recent range. We need some acceleration here so we can get our stops to b/e. Primary target to get to b/e or take some profit is 11475 which is a SCZ area. Further target is the mid-term fib lower at 11250 which is VERY FAR considering how slow the markets are going right now. Normally that wouldn’t be a huge stretch for the DAX, but today, I recommend keeping this trade on a short leash. The US markets have moved NOT. The analysis is still identical. DOW is the primary target and the pullback area to triple convergence is at 17950-17960 for the short setup. We do have a shot at a long on the rally, but that would need to be a secondary move above the break of 18000.