By: Omar Eltoukhy
Hey tradefans!! Well, a very interesting week has certainly yielded some nice opportunities outside of forex. That’s why I have gone from only trading the FX market to expanding into trading oil, and the global stock market indices. While forex has continued to stagnate overall, the gold market, the oil market and the index markets have moved very nicely this week. Think you can’t trade those items on metatrader? WRONG! No matter where you live, there are brokers that offer these instruments on MT4. Yes, even if you live in the US!
Today, we have a some important news looming over us and that may stifle movement. The GBP news discussed earlier has just been released and there is an ECB monetary policy meeting accounts release 30 minutes later. It is very possible the markets are holding slow until this is all out of the way. There is also US weekly unemployment figures, but I feel that is going to have very little impact. As mentioned before, it is the FOMC announcement that is probably going to shake things up if any statements are made “reminding” the markets that there is a rate hike coming since after NFP the conditions have suggested that the index markets and the dollar “gave up” on a rate hike being the cards in the near future. Any change in this sentiment could cause the US dollar to race up and the index markets to plunge. Or nothing at all could happen. My best advice is to be out of trades at least 2 hours before the news and try and capture gains before then.
Keep in mind some of the terminology has to do with the system our team uses in the program. That said, I have tried to point out the actual areas since I know many of you reading this will not have the actual tools. Also keep in mind that this is a VERY tough week to trade ANY market, so please use caution. And AS ALWAYS, this information is for educational purposes only. It is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell or trade any instrument or financial vehicle.
Contact me directly with any questions about the wonderful program we have at: Omar@goldtrademaster.com
OUTLOOK BY INSTRUMENT:
GOLD: As I mentioned earlier today, the possibility of a rejection higher from the major area of 1140.63 was possible. I have taken a long trade after a 3-candle PFT setup. I did take a very limited position because the candles were very small and the reaction although quick, seemed milder than I would like to see in a very active market. Going forward, the possibility still exists for the market to come back down to this level and produce a better rejection, at which point I will add to the trade to make it a full position. Continuation to the upside could also produce a standard signal above 1146.50 or 1150.00. Look also for PFT longs from either of these areas. Targets continue to be 1156.25 and 1160.50 if we make the move higher. For shorts, we need a secondary move below not only 1140.63 but 1138.50 to target 1131.50 and then 1125.00.
SILVER: Maintaining consolidation underneath 15.7080 which does not point to a gold rally at this time (again, confirming a little my idea for only taking a smaller position in gold at this time). Look for a breakout of this area to get things moving to the upside with the major, major trenline looming large above at around 16.00. IF that area were to break cleanly, then we could open the door to a much larger move and would probably support gold making a stronger move up as well. For shorts, we should look for a stronger rejection of the 15.7080 level in the form of a PFT possibly.
OIL: We haven’t moved much as of yet, but I am still holding my forward order at 47.15 per the TC setup mentioned earlier in the day. The analysis stays the same. Look for pullbacks and rejections higher from any one of the multiple s/r areas below such as 47.77 (bullish DF), 47.33 (bearish DF), 47.03 and 46.93 (both SCZ areas) and finally 46.88 (major mid-term fib). Finally we might simply continue to consolidate where we are and then snap through the double SCZ area of 48.85 for a long setup as well, still targeting 50.00 initially in all cases. For shorts we need a secondary move below 46.88 although there is quite a bit of SCZ s/r problem within a short distance below, although there is still enough room for a trade and if we were to get a selloff it could simply punch through those areas, even temporarily to add to the gain. That said, after breaking the tough area of 46.88, I believe oil has shifted back to upside momentum for now, and a break of 50.00 should be the next major event we can expect.
INDICES: As I mentioned earlier in the day, I don’t particularly like this group of instruments today. We have seen a bit of movement, but seem to be holding out for the news flow. Look for the FTSE to pull back ideally to 6250 and reject higher for a long. Look to the DAX to react to 10,000 for either a secondary move long above this level or a sharp rejection from this level lower for a short. The US markets in my opinion hinge on what happens with the SP500 at the 2000 level. If this breaks cleanly, we should favor longs from a secondary move and in that case we could consider longing the DOW as well from the probable break of 16875. IF it rejects south, then we should consider either leaving them alone or looking for PFT shorts with aggressive management.
DAILY OUTLOOK VIDEO:
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