Hi, there is not a great deal happening on a lot of pairs as the markets wait for tomorrows ECB press conference & interest rate news.

However I do still have a few potential trades on my radar and I show in detail why I didn’t long the Nzd/$. Previously I would have taken that trade and now be sat on a loss.  Because I now concentrate on fundamental analysis THEN look for technical for entries I left it alone.

Could it still win? Of course BUT the odds are not greater than 50/50 so best plan is walk away. Wait for price to make a clear move THEN look for entries. For now I am simply leaving it alone.

I explain in detail in the video what fundamentally has caused the current situation and what I am waiting for. If price does pull back up then I am looking to short anywhere around 0.8600.

If price continues to fall I show where I will look for an M2 break out, pull back.

The website I refer to in the video is: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy

Other than that my analysis remains largely the same as Sundays except I made a mistake on the Aud/Yen. What I should have said is that if the stock market makes a big move down, then the Yens will gain strength and thus the Aud/Yen will fall along with the rest – thanks to Mary (tradespotting in the forum) for pointing out my mistake.

Aud/Yen I am still interested to short if it spikes up to 96.30 and the Aud at 0.9500 – look at the weekly Bollinger bands for clues as explained in the video.

The Cad has simply continued up and doesn’t look as though it will pull back right now but the $/Chf looks better and I will long if it gets back to 0.9020

Final one is if AFTER the Ecb press conference price shoots up I will look for clues to short the Euro/$ anywhere around 1.3500

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