Hi, this is a copy of this weeks forex analysis that I provided for members of my forex mentor group, some of whom, including myself, made 100’s of pips/$1000’s in a matter of hours! The article that follows this one on the blog shows what happened next (I had hit my weekly profit target by Tuesday lunch time). This article shows the plan I made on a Sunday and what I was looking to trade and why
In recent months I haven’t had much time to trade intra day as I am working on another project BUT what has struck me is that the major areas from weekly and monthly charts have given me a lot of winners, simply from placing orders at the market open.
- Aud: Currently +550 pips
- The Cad 3 weeks out of 4 winners 50+ pips a time= + 150
- The Chf +100 pips
No I haven’t banked all of the pips as no trader ever does, BUT I am working on it 🙂
I have a number of trades on my radar this week which could give a 1:5 risk reward ratio IF I am patient and wait for price to come to me.
I also trade gaps at the market open which is a couple of hours tops, so altogether now my analysis is done I shouldn’t have to spend more than a few hours at my screens this week. -if you are new this is the basic strategy I use: Marcs Gap Trading Strategy:
My long term goal has always been to trade from these longer time frames. In the last few months it has been very successful. In my early days I “traded” up to 10/12 hours a DAY! In truth I was gambling. Long periods of boredom followed by adrenalin fuelled moves led to repeated stupid mistakes, over trading, blown accounts & every other mistake a rookie can make. Check out this article Are You a Forex Trader or A Gambler to see which applies to you. I will make a wager with you (oh dear) 🙂 that you share at one trait of a gambler whilst trading!
I was speaking with Fotis Papatheofanous last week, our resident ex hedge fund trader, and we agreed that one of the biggest challenges facing novice traders is the desire to “trade.”
As fellow mentor Omar Eltoukhy says, if you need the “buzz” take up poker. Personally I am well past that stage, I only trade to make money. No buzz, no adrenalin rush, no cheering when I win nor tears when I lose. It’s a job. It’s a VERY good job in that if you can do it properly you can earn a serious amount of money working a handful of hours a week. First goal? is stop gambling, start trading like a pro.
The Forex Week Ahead
I hope so as Monday could be a very slow day due to fact the USA; Canadian & Japanese traders will all be missing from the markets.
The Eurogroup also have a meeting on Monday could also see some spikes if that assembled group, collectively or indidually have anything to say that is “off message.”
Watch those calendars carefully for news (I use Forex Factorys and you can find it here: CLICK HERE, especially “red flag” and don’t get too attached to a trade. As I explained earlier ANY news from the USA re the debt ceiling and or Japanese weakening of the yens could see major, unforeseen moves.
Gbp/$: Better opportunities elsewhere: Not clear cut at the moment. Price is currently sat on the weekly 200ema intersecting with a trend line, so this is THE major area on this pair at the moment. The only thing we can do is let price make a move THEN trade it. If it goes back up then will be trickier than a drop as 1.6000 is only just above it. The most conservative entry will be to wait for a pullback to 1.5800. Another option is a counter trend short at a break of the trend line, followed by a pullback as I show in the video
Euro/$: I said a couple of weeks ago that “Potential 2000 pip break out brewing”… that move has started but as yet hasn’t pulled back sufficiently The only place I am interested to trade it in the next few days is if price pulls back all the way to 1.3330 where we have big emas, fibs and previous support & resistance. If it keeps going up I will leave it alone.
Intraday: 1.3467 has been important support so look for clues on 4 hour charts for a bounce back up from there.
Chf: Currently 100+ pips in profit from the previous weekly analysis of mine, ie the bounce back up at 0.9000 I said at the time” Lots of indications that a short is in order BUT I explain in detail in the video why I am more interested in a counter trend (half stake) long at 0.9000”
If it continues drifting upwards then I will short at 0.9300. and if it drops I will long at 0.9000 once more. At the moment its in “no mans land” so I will elave alone.
Euro/Gbp: Price has continued to bounce between emas for the last 5 weeks in a small range. Look for trades there on 4 hours charts. More conservative entry is wait for a close below 0.8300 for a short, or long above 0.8500. Personally I would wait for that move AFTER a daily candle close to avoid a fake out.
Conservative entries for me this week will be short at 0.9600 or long at 0.8900 BUT may well not get there.
Currently sat on a daily trend line and just above major support at 0.9400. This area is key intraday.
If it gapped to there at the open THAT would be ideal to long. See the next article to see how this worked brilliantly and even better on the Aud Yen
If it breaks and closes below there I would wait for a daily candle close, followed by a pullback before shorting.
$/Yen: All over the place at the moment and further complicated due the Bank of Japan possible intervention as explained in the video. 98.66 has been key but broken regularly in recent weeks, leaving alone for now.
Out of the Yens I prefer the Euro this week.
Euro/Yen: Possible 1:5 risk reward on this pair: 132.00 support line is key, previous support and resistance, whole number, fib abd emas just below. I am only interested to long so that’s the area. If it breaks there I will leave it alone.
Aud Yen: 92.00 is the intersection of horizontal support, daily trend line and a fib so I will look to long there. Option B is if it breaks the daily trend line later in the week, I will consider a short at 91.50 after a pullback, again on a daily candle close.
Cad: 3 weeks running I had decent wins at the major area of 1.02750, as the weekly 200ema had moved up slightly I adjusted my entry last week and missed it by a couple of pips, but 3 wins no losses on the Cad is a rarity! Its currently bouncing between 1.0420 and 1.030 so those are the areas once more, until one or the other breaks. New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum
Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Members only Forex Forum
To View the Video full screen, click on the square shape, bottom right hand corner. I had a problem with my video software this week so apologies for the screen size being slightly smaller than usual:
Author: Marc Walton