Lazy Forex Traders 2000 Pip Move?

Written by Marc Walton

I recently retired as a professional trader. I now focus on teaching others to trade my funds. My team and I have coached 1000's of home based forex traders. Along with trading psychologist, Rich Friesen & a former student of mine, turned full-time trader & now a mentor: Pierre du Plessis

September 17, 2013

Hi, Here is an example of the detailed analysis that members of my Forex Mentor Pro group receive before the markets open on A Sunday, with updates during the week. This analysis combined with gaps at the market open gave 100’s of pips profit & I will post the update video later in the week:keep-calm-and-be-a-lazy-trader

Some of my friends say that I am a lazy trader.

If I can make my profit target on a Monday, often I will walk away.

I do my analysis on a weekend and create an overall plan for the week.

From that I try to find trades that I can simply place at the market open and walk OR at the least I have “areas of interest” on various pairs should I feel the need to sit and watch the markets, usually no lower than a 4 hour chart.

When I started trading forex from home back in late 2002 I used to spend up to 12 hours a day “trading” forex (in truth I was gambling more than trading because I really didn’t know what I was doing half of the time). So if what I do now is “lazy” trading I don’t care. Personally I prefer to think of it as intelligent trading 🙂 I spend as little time as necessary at the charts, make money and get on with other things.

This week we are still waiting for movement on price on many pairs after the summer sideways markets. The Euro/$ for example is waiting to burst out of a tight range and monthly triangle which suggests a potential 2000 pip move coming up in the run up to Christmas. On daily charts we have a small range surrounded by lots of emas and other forms of support & resistance so what do we do?

I show in today’s video how I am waiting for price to break and clearly close before trading it and I prefer to look at some of my other pairs for forward orders including the dear old “loonie” (the Cad). I show you how you might choose to trade the GBP by looking on smaller time frames but I will only do that if the bigger moves don’t play out.

My usual goal is to be finished by Wednesday and this week I will definitely out of all positions before London closes. There is FOMC news and even more potentially dangerous press conference all of which could force price to race one way and then the other. The financial commentators are waiting for Bernanke and his cronies to make a comment about tapering QE which is technical jargon for “slow down those printing presses boys.”

If the Fed state that is correct, price will rocket. If they say it is incorrect, price will rocket. If they nothing it will rocket in both directions at the same time! Best advice is do not have ANY trades open whilst this nonsense is taking place you have a far greater chance of getting your fingers burned, including the possibility that’ stops will be jumped if the news is particularly unexpected.

Pay close attention to ALL red flag news before placing any trades this week and I urge you to NOT trade FOMC and don’t forget there is still the Syrian crisis going on in the back ground. The Middle East is a powder keg at the best of times, but add in the Russians and this situation could rapidly escalate into a MAJOR conflict and throw world markets into turmoil.

Usually I prefer the Euro & Gbp but this week I am concentrating more on my back up pairs of the Yens and the Cad as explained in detail in the video

Gbp/$: Has made a break out which is what we want BUT I will not trade it in its current position as last weeks was a major move and there is too much resistance in the way. I need a pullback OR price to clearly break and close on a daily chart above 1.6065 followed by a pullback. I will not place a forward order on this pair.

Intra day the areas to watch are 1.5800 for a possible pullback and move back up BUT I look for multiple reasons to take a trade and that area does not have enough for me.

1 hour chart. I rarely trade this time frame but I show in the video how price is currently in a channel around 1.5800 and fib, trend line and 55ema are all around 1.5820 so one option is watch that. Second option is if the trend line and 1.5800 break then I would start to think of a short. Not a recommendation but it is an example of being flexible.

DO NOT TRADE IT Wednesday morning as there is major UK news, again concerning QE.

Euro/$: Potential 2000 pip break out brewing BUT the conservative way to trade it is wait for a break and close on the weekly chart! If you are not that patient then intra day these are the areas I will be watching

I favour (slightly) a short at the moment and 1.3315 has worked the previous 3 days but the weekly 200ema is only 25 pips below and holding price up. If it does drop then a bounce back up from 1.3230 will be of interest. If it goes up from current position I need price to break and CLOSE on at least a 4 hour chart above last weeks high at 1.3325, followed by a pull back.

Chf: I also favour a short on this pair but that is why things are so tricky at the moment. If the Euro goes down, the Chf will go up most of the time. 0.9380 is still key on this pair. I will short if it reaches there, but will also be watching 4 hour charts in case it doesn’t make it. 0.9350 is also a BIG area as it’s the weekly 55ema and previous support and resistance too.

If 0.9400 clearly breaks and there is general $USA strength then I will look for an M2 break out, pull back long.

Euro/Gbp: I said a few weeks ago that “I do believe that the Euro will weaken against the Gbp in the run up to Christmas but there is too much below current price right now” and that is still the case. If it pulls back to 0..8400 will be of interest to short but only from 4 hour charts. 0.8300 is now key on this so a break and close below on at least a 4 hour I will short BUT I show in the video why I am also interested to long there! That trade will only need a small stop but it is a major area. SO my plan is long it there. If it breaks and closes below, then I will short it.

Aud In the middle of nowhere right now. Forward order I will place a trade to long at 0.8900 but it seems unlikely at the moment. Intra day longs at 0.9200 and shorts at 0.9400 are the areas to watch for clues ie candle sticks, emas, Bollinger bands etc

$/Yen: I Prefer the Aud Yen of the 3 yen pairs as that has MULTIPLE REASONS for my chosen entry but the $/Yen Is worth watching intra day. I still believe that this could be on for a huge move up and I want to catch it for a long term hold BUT it broke back down below 100.00 once more

We have previous major support at 98.80 AND the 34/55 on the daily chart so I want to long. If it breaks and closes below that area on a DAILY chart I will consider an M2 pull back to short.

Euro/Yen: Currently sat on the important 132.00 support line but I don’t have multiple reasons to place a forward order. If it pulls back further then 130.50 area has a trend line, emas and fibs to give me more confidence.

 Aud Yen: Technically best of the 3 for me. 90.00 is MAJOR previous support and resistance. Its also 50% fib, whole number/psych level etc .

Cad: Not for rookies this pair and it has been all over the place in recent months so higher risk than I like BUT I have multiple reasons to take this trade AND it has a very good risk reward ratio so I will place a forward order long @1.o270 – All explained in detail in the video.

New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum

Pierre, Vassilis (Capsmart), Raa, Omar, Mary, and other experienced members will be available in the forum to give you a more up to the minute assessment & whether they see any potential trades lining up in the next few days. Many members tell me this is the best forex forum there is (no back biting & bitchiness, nor spam, that spoils most forums) and all members are happy to help new visitors. Its a great resource, USE IT: Forex Forum

To View the Video full screen, click on the square shape, bottom right hand corner. I had a problem with my video software this week so apologies for the screen size being slightly smaller than usual:

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