Marc’s Forex Analysis: 1600 Pip Move ?

risk management in forex

Written by Marc Walton

I recently retired as a professional trader. I now focus on teaching others to trade my funds. My team and I have coached 1000's of home based forex traders. Along with trading psychologist, Rich Friesen & a former student of mine, turned full-time trader & now a mentor: Pierre du Plessis

April 13, 2015

Here is a copy of the detailed forex analysis I posted for members of my forexmentorpro.com group on Sunday the 12th April

Marc's Forex Analysis: 1600 Pip Move ?I have a possible 1600 pip move brewing on one pair and plenty of other potential trades setting up, even though things have become more tricky of late.

Part of the battle in learning how to become consistently profitable is the ability to adapt to changing market patterns.

NO SYSTEM works all the time.

A trend following one had an awesome 8 months from the summer of 2014 but in recent months price has been moving sideways on many pairs so what to do now?

Range trading is not complicated and can be very profitable with great risk reward ratios. The ability to win 5,6, or even 10 times the amount staked is what makes a professional trader. It is achievable and I give lots of examples in todays video.

The Forex Week Ahead- Possible 1600 Pip Move

As ever there is a lot of BIG news due out this week and the Greek situation has still not been resolved. If agreement is not reached then THAT could cause a major drop on the Euro. Conversely it may give at least a temporary reprieve, so dont be in more than 1 euro trade at a time unless you have stops to entry or better on the first one.

There is an Ecb press conference, various other rate announcements, G20 meeting and IMF so lots of potential catalysts so how to play the week ahead?

I start my analysis from weekly and even monthly charts, often (like last weeks Cad) price will race at a news announcement BUT stop dead at these longer timeframe support and resistance areas and there are others this week.

I have shown you for the last 2 months why longing the Cad at 1.2420 was such a good potential trade, with a great risk reward potential and using a simple bounce trade entry. Did you take at least one of them? If not, why not!

Cad: Almost the same again, though I have moved the top resistance line down a little. Its stuck in a range on a weekly chart so I will long at 1.2430 and short at 1.2750 unless or until it breaks in either direction. When It does break I will look for a daily candle close followed by an M2 pull back entry

Usd/Sgp: The 6 month winning run came to an end 2 weeks ago, but I am back in again at 1.3616. If you missed the entry then wait for it to break and close back inside the old channel around 1.3700. I am not interested to short at the moment. If it breaks down again I will ignore it.

Euro/Yen: was range bound, now broken lower BUT didn’t break the recent low unfortunately. Number of ways to play this; most conservative is pull back to short at 131.00 but other more aggressive options are break and close (daily candle) below recent lows, followed by a pull back, M2 entry or pull back to 128.80

AUd/Nzd: My short from a few weeks ago, was taken out, only interested to short again. 1.0400 is THE main area for multiple reasons (see video) but it might not get there, 1.0290 is valid, but fewer reasons. I will watch on daily and 4 hour for candle stick clues/emas etc as to whether to take it there

Gbp/$ very messy and UK elections mean there is a great deal of uncertainty BUT it made a new low. The more aggressive entries are continuation from current position (not for me) as I prefer pull backs. 1.4700 is definitely an area to watch as is 1.4830 (explained in the video). I will also place an order at the market open to short at 1.4980 that is the main area for me on this pair

Euro/$ Equally messy and ECB press conference and Greek situation make this very tricky. I will place an order to short at 1.1000. More aggressive entry is a short at 1.0700

Euro/Gbp. Another messy one for reasons stated above, but watch 0.7400/7430 area to short. 0.7400 is stronger area.

$/Yen. Not one of my favorite pairs and messy yet again. Consider triangle break outs followed by pull back above 121.00 BUT RISK REWARD ISN’T GREAT or a half stake short ( I always risk 50% less when trading counter trend) @ 121.50

Chf: Not for me because of SNB but 0.9500 is now decent area of support for a long

ONES TO WATCH

Gbp/Cad: At major support area, so a long now is an option. More conservative is a short. Best place will be 1.8690 but other options include a daily candle close below current low, followed by a pull back. There are other options, explained in the video in detail

Euro/Aud: 1st options is a bounce back up from its current major support but Possible 1600 pip drop on the cards here! Conservative entry short will be below recent low, followed by pull back. More aggressive is below last weeks low, final option is pull back to 1.4220. Definitely worth watching

Nzd/$: Seems a long way off right now BUT multiple reasons to short if it pulls back to 0.7840 area.

New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.5000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. If you would like to learn how to trade forex from home check out my 5* rated, low cost forex mentor program CLICK HERE

regards

Marc Walton

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